The Latest Polls: Harris and Trump Neck-and-Neck
The latest polls reveal an exceptionally tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. This contest is so close that its outcome may hinge not just on key swing states but on specific counties within those states. Here are eight counties to watch closely on Election Night.
- Cobb County, Georgia
A prime example of shifting suburban dynamics, Cobb County is just northwest of Atlanta and was traditionally Republican due to its majority-white population. However, rapid diversification has reshaped its demographics—now 30% Black, 15% Latino, and 6% Asian, with a substantial immigrant community. Cobb has also remained affluent and educated, with major corporations like Home Depot headquartered there. Hillary Clinton won Cobb by a narrow margin in 2016, and Biden expanded that lead significantly in 2020. Harris needs a similar margin here to secure Georgia, balancing suburban Republicans and voters of color who may lean toward Trump. - Waukesha County, Wisconsin
Harris doesn’t need to win every suburb but must chip away at GOP strongholds like Waukesha, a traditionally Republican area. Once deep red, Waukesha has shifted slightly left due to affluent, educated voters who oppose Trump’s rhetoric. Although it remains majority white and affluent, recent trends indicate softening support for Republicans. Biden improved the Democratic performance here in 2020, and Harris will aim to continue that trend. - Washoe County, Nevada
Nevada’s political landscape consists of rural Republican areas, the Democratic stronghold of Clark County, and swingy Washoe County (Reno and Sparks), which often tips the state. In 2020, Biden narrowly won here, and incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez Masto’s 2022 victory was also attributed to a slim margin in Washoe. The county’s tech industry expansion, including Tesla’s Gigafactory, has attracted educated voters, helping shift the area blue. Harris will need strong support here to counter Trump’s gains among Hispanic voters. - Wayne County, Michigan
While Trump is unlikely to win Detroit-dominated Wayne County, its impact on the state’s result is crucial. With a high percentage of Black and Arab American voters, Wayne County is vital for Harris. Republicans have made inroads with working-class white voters in the area, and recent polls show weakening support for Democrats among Black men and Arab Americans. If Harris underperforms here, Michigan could be at risk. - Douglas County, Nebraska
Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, largely made up of Douglas County, offers a rare opportunity for Democrats in a largely red state. Although Trump is likely to win Nebraska statewide, Douglas County’s educated, diverse suburban voters have leaned Democratic in recent years. Biden’s strong performance here in 2020 could give Harris a critical electoral vote if she wins the district again. - Erie County, Pennsylvania
With Pennsylvania projected as a key swing state, Erie County is pivotal. Its diverse demographics—Democratic urban centers, conservative rural areas, and mixed suburbs—make it a bellwether for the state. Erie swung from Obama to Trump and back to Biden, signaling its volatile political leaning. Current polling suggests Harris has a slight edge, but the GOP has made gains in voter registration. - Maricopa County, Arizona
Maricopa, which includes Phoenix, is Arizona’s most populous county and has undergone significant demographic changes. Once solidly Republican, Maricopa’s Latino population (over 30%) and a number of “Never Trump” Republicans have helped shift the county leftward. In 2020, Biden’s win here was decisive for his Arizona victory. However, Trump’s recent gains in voter registration mean Harris will need to mobilize urban and Latino voters, especially given the state’s focus on border security and abortion rights. - Cabarrus County, North Carolina
North Carolina’s Cabarrus County has historically leaned Republican, but recent shifts in its suburban population have made it more competitive. The Black population has risen significantly, and the area’s Hispanic and Asian populations have grown. Democrats have also gained representation locally, with Diamond Staton-Williams winning a state legislature seat in 2022. Harris aims to narrow Trump’s margin here to boost her chances in North Carolina.
These counties, with their distinct demographic and political profiles, could ultimately decide the election, making each one a critical focal point on Election Night.
