Juan Soto’s future is one of the most closely watched stories this MLB offseason. The free-agent outfielder is reportedly narrowing down his options, with a decision expected to come soon, possibly before the end of the week.
Soto’s mega-agent, Scott Boras, provided an update on the process during a press conference on Tuesday. He indicated that the slugger is beginning to eliminate teams from his list of potential suitors, with the decision-making process in its final stages. “When you go through these things, you just have a lot of information to meld through,” Boras said. “We’ve had meetings with a number of franchises. He’s begun the process of eliminating teams and doing things. Juan is a very methodical thinker, so we’ll see. I don’t think anything is imminent in the near future.”
Despite Boras downplaying an immediate decision, reports from ESPN suggest that Soto could make his choice by the end of the week, just ahead of the MLB winter meetings in Dallas. This timeline means that Soto’s future could be decided very soon, with several teams still in the running.
Soto, a two-time Silver Slugger, is expected to receive a deal worth at least $600 million. According to The Athletic, all of the teams remaining in contention for Soto’s services have put forward offers in that range. The list of teams reportedly still in the mix includes the Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, New York Yankees, and Toronto Blue Jays. The Athletic also indicates that Soto’s decision is expected before the winter meetings conclude.
The $600 million figure is just the baseline for Soto’s next contract. The real question is whether Soto will surpass Shohei Ohtani’s historic $700 million deal. Ohtani’s 10-year, $700 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers currently stands as the largest contract in professional sports history. Soto’s deal won’t come close to Ohtani’s average annual value of $70 million, but it could still come in as a significant total figure.
Soto is likely to exceed Ohtani’s $460 million luxury tax value when adjusted for inflation, according to MLB estimates. Ohtani, while a phenomenal player, also benefits from the unique economic advantages that come with being a national hero in Japan. His status boosts his marketability, with substantial income from Japanese endorsements, making him an even more lucrative signing for the Dodgers. Soto, on the other hand, is an outstanding talent but doesn’t carry the same cross-country marketing appeal that Ohtani does.
Soto’s deal could still surpass $700 million, depending on how teams structure their offers. While Soto is entering free agency at a younger age than Ohtani did, which could give him additional leverage, there are still many factors to consider. The length of his deal, potential opt-outs, and how teams structure the deal with possible deferred payments will all influence the final amount. Opt-outs could lead to hesitation among teams, as they would run the risk of committing a long-term contract without guaranteed years.
It’s clear that Soto is in a great position, though. Multiple offers at $600 million or more show that he is among the most coveted free agents in MLB history. The bidding war between some of baseball’s wealthiest franchises is likely to push the total value of his contract even higher. However, whether Soto will break Ohtani’s record-setting contract remains uncertain, but at the very least, he is positioned to make history with a remarkable payday.
The outcome of Soto’s free agency saga will likely have ripple effects across the MLB landscape, influencing how teams approach their future financial planning. Whether he surpasses the $700 million mark or not, Soto is certain to sign a deal that cements him as one of the most valuable players in baseball.
