Indicators of Consumer Trends as China’s Singles Day Approaches
As China’s Singles Day shopping extravaganza unfolds, early indicators suggest a notable shift in consumer behavior, with a rise in spending in select categories despite overall sales growth expectations remaining modest. The annual shopping event, which started on October 14—earlier than the previous year—offers a glimpse into changing patterns among Chinese consumers who are increasingly selective in their purchases.
Jacob Cooke, co-founder and CEO of WPIC Marketing + Technologies, remarked in a recent interview that the gross merchandise value (GMV) growth for this year is projected to surpass last year’s figures. He noted a more subdued shopping atmosphere this year, stating, “Sentiment is quite different this year; it’s much calmer.” According to Cooke, consumers are shifting their focus from simply hunting for bargains to seeking higher-quality items that they genuinely need.
The Singles Day event, also known as 11.11, has transformed into an extensive promotional period since Alibaba first launched it in 2008. The shopping festival typically features intense discounts and aggressive marketing strategies, and this year is no exception, though consumer sentiment appears more rational.
Sales Performance and Growth Projections
Recent reports highlight that the GMV as of October 30 reached 845 billion yuan (approximately $119.1 billion). The data indicates that about 80% of this value was derived from leading e-commerce platforms such as Alibaba, JD.com, and PDD, while the remaining 20% came from livestreaming sales platforms like Kuaishou and Douyin. Despite a slowdown from the previous year’s explosive growth rates, experts forecast a GMV increase of around 15% for this Singles Day, slightly better than the 11% growth observed in 2023, which featured a shorter promotional period of 19 days.
Cooke observed that consumer preferences are shifting towards experiential products, suggesting a decline in demand for ultra-luxury brands like Louis Vuitton in favor of more accessible brands such as Lululemon. “Consumer habits have really changed,” he noted, emphasizing a trend towards purchasing items that offer meaningful experiences rather than simply luxurious labels.
Government Incentives and Market Dynamics
This year’s Singles Day also benefits from government initiatives aimed at boosting consumer spending. Chinese authorities introduced subsidies for home appliance trade-ins in late July, and recent stimulus measures, including reductions in mortgage rates, have further stimulated the economy. Analysts at UOB Kay Hian anticipate that the festival will serve as a significant indicator of economic recovery trends in the coming quarters.
The trade-in program has particularly driven sales in the home appliance sector, with Alibaba reporting an impressive surge in presales during the initial hour of the festival—over seven times greater than the previous year. JD.com similarly reported double-digit growth in transaction volumes for the same period, particularly in consumer electronics and home appliances.
Dave Xie, a partner at consulting firm Oliver Wyman, noted a cooling of the price wars among e-commerce platforms, which has returned a degree of rationality to the market. He highlighted that categories such as home appliances, consumer electronics, outdoor gear, beauty products, and pet supplies have all experienced strong sales during this year’s event.
Emerging Trends in Consumer Preferences
An intriguing consumer trend this year involves toys and collectibles, particularly those associated with popular games and animated series. This segment, often referred to as intellectual property (IP) products in China, has gained traction as international brands vie for licensing opportunities. “There’s always a micro trend each year during 11.11, and this year it really seems to be the case with collectibles,” Cooke remarked.
In an exciting development, over 100,000 products linked to more than 1,000 characters from popular franchises like Genshin Impact and Arknights are set to debut on Alibaba’s Tmall platform for Singles Day. Products range from collectible cards and figurines to themed apparel, reflecting a growing interest among younger consumers who seek items that bring joy and emotional satisfaction.
Despite these promising developments, the overall atmosphere surrounding this year’s Singles Day is notably more restrained than in previous years. Ashley Dudarenok, founder of the marketing consultancy ChoZan, observed, “Chinese consumers are not caught up in the ‘buy buy buy frenzy.’ They are looking for more expensive products that they actually need rather than just lower prices.” This sentiment suggests that while there may be pockets of growth, consumer enthusiasm is more tempered this year.
