Welcome to the Online Edition of From the Politics Desk
This evening newsletter brings the latest insights from NBC News Politics, covering developments from the campaign trail, Capitol Hill, and the White House. In this edition, Senior Political Editor Mark Murray examines NBC News’ merged polling data to explore a key factor in Donald Trump’s current support: infrequent voters. With Election Day nearing, understanding the dynamics of these less consistent voters could be crucial to determining the final outcome in battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. A central question looms: will the infrequent Trump supporters show up to vote this time around?
The Influence of Infrequent Voters
The upcoming presidential election may rest heavily on whether infrequent voters—those who have participated in past elections only occasionally—will head to the polls in 2024. According to merged polling data from NBC News that spans July, September, and October, this voter segment has been leaning more toward Trump. However, whether these voters will turn their intentions into action remains uncertain, adding a layer of unpredictability to the electoral landscape.
The data indicates that while Vice President Kamala Harris maintains strong support among frequent voters, especially those who participated in both the 2020 and 2022 elections, Trump has an edge among less frequent voters. Harris holds a 6-point lead (51% to 45%) among voters who cast ballots in both 2020 and 2022, and she enjoys a 9-point lead (52% to 43%) among those who skipped the 2020 election but voted in 2022. These margins reflect the Democrats’ impressive performance in the 2022 midterms, but they also highlight a trend where Democrats are performing well in lower-turnout elections.
In contrast, Trump’s lead is more prominent among those with irregular voting patterns. Among individuals who voted in 2020 but skipped 2022, he has a 4-point advantage (48% to 44%), and among those who did not vote in either of the last two elections, his lead extends to 10 points (50% to 40%). These findings suggest a shift in American political behavior, with Republicans potentially benefiting in high-turnout elections if they can mobilize their less frequent supporters.
The Challenge of Mobilizing Infrequent Voters
While Trump may hold the lead among infrequent voters, converting this support into actual votes presents a unique challenge. NBC News’ merged polling data shows that those who didn’t participate in either the 2020 or 2022 elections demonstrate a significantly lower level of interest in the upcoming election than those who have voted in at least one of the last two cycles. This points to a potential barrier for Republicans, as their advantage on paper among less frequent voters may not translate into real-world gains without a substantial mobilization effort.
To gain further insight into the motivations of these infrequent voters, NBC News conducted focus groups with individuals who did not vote in 2020 but plan to participate this time. The discussions uncovered various reasons for previous non-participation, such as demanding work schedules, family obligations, COVID-19 concerns, and issues with voter registration processes. These factors reflect the obstacles that many Americans face when it comes to voting, particularly in communities where access to the polls may be limited or other responsibilities take priority.
Insights from Voter Focus Groups
The focus groups revealed why some of these previously disengaged voters are now leaning toward Trump. Many participants expressed nostalgia for the perceived economic prosperity and stability of Trump’s presidency, using terms like “prosperous,” “normal,” and “hopeful” to describe that period. In contrast, their descriptions of current life were largely negative, with terms such as “difficult,” “struggling,” “declining,” and “troubling.” These responses indicate that for some infrequent voters, the memory of perceived past stability under Trump’s leadership has left a lasting impression.
This trend raises a critical question for 2024: Will Trump’s appeal to these less engaged voters, many of whom chose not to vote in 2020, translate into turnout this time around? The answer could make or break his campaign in tight races across pivotal battleground states. If these voters do show up, it could shift the balance in Trump’s favor, particularly in states that were narrowly decided in 2020. However, if past behavior is an indicator, these voters’ intentions may not necessarily lead to action.
A High-Stakes Election
As Election Day approaches, both campaigns face high stakes in mobilizing supporters. For Democrats, the challenge lies in sustaining momentum among the groups that have shown strong support for Harris in recent polling, particularly frequent voters. For Republicans, the path to victory depends on whether they can successfully engage less frequent voters to overcome their historical reluctance to participate. The stakes are heightened in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where small shifts in voter turnout could have outsized impacts on the electoral map.
The 2024 election thus becomes a test of voter mobilization strategies, where each campaign must energize its base while appealing to those who may be voting for the first time in years. The question of whether these less active voters will indeed make it to the polls remains unanswered, yet it could ultimately shape the direction of American politics for years to come.
