On November 5, U.S. voters will head to the polls to decide their next president. Initially a rematch of the 2020 election was expected, but the race took a dramatic turn in July when President Joe Biden suspended his re-election campaign and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate. Now, the primary question is whether America will witness its first woman president or return Donald Trump to the White House for a second term.
As election day nears, the campaigns are in full swing, and both candidates are making their case in crucial battleground states. Polling will play a significant role in guiding predictions, though this election could hinge on several variables—including the notoriously difficult-to-predict U.S. Electoral College system. Let’s dive into what the polling shows, what we know about the swing states, and what the current trends suggest.
National Polls: Who Has the Edge?
Since Kamala Harris entered the race in late July, she has held a slight lead in national polling averages over Donald Trump, though recent data shows that this lead is shrinking. Early polling reflected a bounce for Harris, likely stemming from the high-profile shift in the Democratic race after Biden’s exit. By the end of August, Harris had built a lead of around four points, according to national averages.
Throughout September, polling remained relatively steady, even after a pivotal debate between Harris and Trump on September 10, which drew nearly 70 million viewers. While the debate brought new energy to the campaigns, the polls didn’t show significant shifts. However, as October approached, the gap between the candidates began to narrow, with some recent polls showing Trump gaining ground.
National polls provide a snapshot of overall voter sentiment across the U.S., but they don’t always capture the nuances of the Electoral College system, where a candidate’s success depends not on the popular vote but on winning enough state-based electoral votes to reach the threshold of 270 out of 538. This system makes certain states—often referred to as battleground or swing states—especially critical to the outcome of the race.
Understanding the Electoral College System
In the U.S., each state is assigned a certain number of electoral votes based on population, and most states award these votes to the candidate who wins the state’s popular vote. This creates scenarios where candidates focus heavily on winning specific states that historically fluctuate between Democratic and Republican support. These battleground states, including Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, are pivotal in this election cycle, as neither candidate has a solid lead in these regions.
Polling in the Battleground States
Current polling shows tight races in the seven key battleground states. Although Harris initially led in several of these states when she entered the race, recent data suggests a back-and-forth, with both candidates gaining and losing ground as the election date draws closer.
In states like Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, Trump has held a slight edge for the past few weeks, though his lead is within the margin of error in most polls. On the other hand, Harris has maintained a small lead in Nevada. In Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—three states that played a decisive role in Trump’s 2016 victory and Biden’s 2020 win—Harris held the advantage throughout August, sometimes leading by two or three points. Yet, as October arrived, Trump made gains, even taking a slim lead in Pennsylvania, one of the most closely watched states due to its relatively high number of electoral votes.
How Polling Averages Are Calculated
Polling averages, like those compiled by the polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight, blend individual poll results from multiple polling companies. These averages aim to create a more stable and comprehensive picture of the race by reducing the impact of outliers or less reliable individual polls.
FiveThirtyEight includes only polls that meet rigorous standards, such as transparency in sample size, methodology, and timing. Each polling method (e.g., phone interviews, online surveys) has its strengths and weaknesses, so combining results helps mitigate biases and increase accuracy.
What Could Shape the Final Weeks
As election day nears, the campaigns are focused on winning over undecided voters, mobilizing their bases, and reinforcing their messages in battleground states. Both candidates are expected to intensify their ad spending, personal appearances, and grassroots efforts in key regions. Harris will likely highlight her priorities on healthcare, education, and climate change, aiming to appeal to moderates and undecided voters. Trump’s campaign, meanwhile, is expected to emphasize economic growth, immigration, and national security, hoping to energize his base and recapture the working-class voters who supported him in 2016.
Events in the closing days could also have a significant impact. Political analysts are keeping an eye on economic indicators, international developments, and potential surprises from either campaign. The possibility of “October surprises” — unexpected events or revelations that shake up the race — is a common factor in U.S. elections, as they can influence undecided voters or energize one side’s turnout.
In Summary: A Close Race with High Stakes
The 2024 election remains highly competitive, and predictions are clouded by a mix of tight polling numbers, the quirks of the Electoral College, and the potential for surprises. National polls indicate a slight advantage for Harris, but her lead has narrowed, and Trump is competitive in several swing states. This combination suggests that small changes in voter behavior could dramatically impact the outcome.
The battle for the White House will likely hinge on a handful of states, where last-minute campaigning and voter turnout efforts could make all the difference. Both campaigns understand the stakes and are investing heavily in these areas, knowing that the path to victory runs through the heart of the battleground states.
