Under the United States electoral system, citizens do not cast their votes directly for their chosen leader. Instead, their votes go toward electing 538 members of the Electoral College, a unique body responsible for selecting the president and vice president. As the nation gears up for Election Day, which falls on a Tuesday, officials are urging voters to exercise patience in the face of what is anticipated to be a closely contested presidential race. They warn that determining the winner could take several days, highlighting the complexity of the electoral process.
Each state allocates its Electoral College votes based on the results of its popular vote. The larger states, which have more representatives in Congress, wield more influence in the Electoral College system. In the upcoming election, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris is set to face off against her Republican opponent, Donald Trump, in a battle to secure at least 270 Electoral College votes—half of the total plus one. This number is crucial, as it determines who will assume the presidency. However, the possibility of a tight race means that complications such as legal disputes over vote counts could delay the announcement of the winner.
As of now, more than 81 million Americans have already cast their ballots ahead of Election Day, surpassing half of the total number of votes recorded in the 2020 election. This early voting trend reflects a significant engagement from the electorate, which may play a role in how quickly results can be processed.
Polls will start closing at 6:00 PM Eastern Time (2300 GMT), but the timing of declaring a victor can vary greatly, especially in a competitive race. In 2020, for instance, the media did not announce Democratic candidate Joe Biden as the winner until Saturday, November 7, even though polls had closed on the preceding Tuesday. This marked a longer wait for results compared to the elections in 2012 and 2016, where outcomes were determined more swiftly.
Once votes are cast, local election officials—who may be either appointed or elected—are tasked with processing and counting them. The methods of tallying ballots can differ significantly depending on the location. In recent years, many states have modified their election laws to permit the preparation of mail-in and overseas ballots prior to Election Day. However, key battleground states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have not adopted similar measures, potentially leading to slower counting processes as mail-in ballots in those states cannot be processed until Election Day itself.
Moreover, particularly close races may prompt recounts, adding another layer of complexity to the final vote count. While media outlets often project winners based on the information available, these projections are not official. Actual results must be certified at the state level, which involves a comprehensive accounting of every ballot cast. States are required to finalize and certify their results by December 11. Following this, the electors chosen by each state will cast their votes for the candidate who won their respective popular votes.
By December 25, the electoral certificates from each state must be submitted to the President of the Senate, a role currently held by Vice President Harris. Congress will then convene on January 6 to officially count and confirm these electoral votes before the new president is inaugurated on January 20.
The certification process, while traditionally seen as a formality, is under increasing scrutiny and has become increasingly politicized. Experts have raised concerns about potential delays and obstructions. For instance, at least 22 county election officials in battleground states expressed their intentions to postpone certification following the 2022 elections, reflecting a notable increase from previous years. According to the organization Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW), a significant number of election officials have previously refused to certify election results, and there is a possibility that this trend may continue.
Legal challenges are also a significant factor in the electoral process. The aftermath of the 2020 election saw numerous lawsuits initiated by Trump and his allies, most of which were dismissed by the courts. As the current election approaches, a surge in lawsuits from both political parties could complicate the counting and tabulation of votes, further delaying the announcement of the final results.
In summary, the complexity of the U.S. electoral process, combined with heightened political tensions and the potential for legal challenges, sets the stage for a protracted and contentious election outcome. As voters head to the polls, the anticipation surrounding the election’s results is palpable, but the path to determining a winner may be fraught with obstacles.
